Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
